A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
