Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
